Middle East Crisis Reignited: Re-blockade of Hormuz

On June 20 (local time), Iran declared the re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, citing violations of the ceasefire MOU by the United States and Israel. This came just two days after transit through the strait resumed following the US-Iran ceasefire MOU. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Military Headquarters, which commands the integrated Iranian forces, stated that the re-blockade was due to “the United States’ clear violation of the principle of good faith and non-fulfillment of promises, including the non-implementation of Article 1 of the memorandum.” In particular, they raised concerns about the continued airstrikes targeting the pro-Iranian armed group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The US Central Command, responsible for the Middle East, immediately stated, “US forces are stationed in the region and remain vigilant to ensure that the agreement with Iran is observed and fully implemented,” emphasizing its commitment to supporting freedom of navigation.

International Oil Prices: The Beginning of a Roller Coaster Market?

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy transit route, accounting for approximately 35% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments and 20% of all oil trade. Its importance is overwhelming, especially given that about 82% of crude oil imported into South Korea passes through this strait. Iran’s re-blockade declaration immediately impacted the , increasing upward price pressure. Earlier, international oil prices had plummeted to the low $80s per barrel on news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, but this re-blockade has once again heightened uncertainty. International oil prices are highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, and a sharp price increase will be unavoidable if concerns about supply disruptions materialize.

Dark Clouds Over the Global Economy and Shipping Industry

The threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade is not limited to rising oil prices. It is also directly impacting the global . If transit through the strait is restricted or safety issues arise, it can lead to increased insurance premiums, transportation delays, and other negative effects on the entire global supply chain, in addition to the resumption of ship operations. Even after the peace agreement between the US and Iran, the shipping industry remained cautious about operating in the Strait of Hormuz, as there were many issues to resolve, such as mine clearance and verification of navigation safety. Experts predict that it will take a considerable amount of time for the commercial shipping system to fully normalize even after the strait reopens.

Iran’s declaration of a re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has once again amplified uncertainty surrounding international oil prices. Changes in the Middle East situation are always unpredictable variables, but the stability of the Strait of Hormuz is directly linked to the global energy market and the world economy. Diplomatic efforts by the relevant countries are urgently needed, and we must closely monitor future international affairs and oil price trends.

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This situation is not just Iran’s problem. It is serious because it further fuels instability in the global energy market and could ultimately lead to a domino effect threatening our food prices.

Strait of Hormuz Blockade, What’s Happening to Iran?

The massive oil spill near Iran’s Kharg Island is not unrelated to the intensified US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As the US military strengthens control over Iranian-flagged vessels and ships departing from Iran, Iran’s crude oil export routes are virtually blocked. For Iran, which finds it difficult to arbitrarily halt crude oil production, a severe problem of insufficient storage space has arisen.

This situation is cited as the direct cause of the oil spill.

• Exceeding Storage Limits: It is possible that crude oil spilled due to storage facilities exceeding their capacity.
• Rupture of Aging Pipeline: The possibility of a rupture in an aging subsea pipeline transporting crude oil from oil fields west of Kharg Island has also been raised.
• Possibility of Intentional Discharge: There is even speculation that Iran may have intentionally discharged crude oil into the sea due to a lack of storage space.

The exact cause of the spill is still unclear, but it is evident that all these possibilities are tragic consequences of the unstable situation in the Middle East.

More Than Just an Environmental Disaster: Ripple Effects

This Iranian oil spill could have a devastating impact on the Persian Gulf ecosystem. Warnings suggest that if the spilled crude oil spreads along currents to coastal areas in the shallow Persian Gulf, the damage to coastal ecosystems will be immense. Particularly sensitive ecosystems such as mangroves, coral reefs, seabirds, turtles, and spawning grounds could suffer severe damage.

Beyond environmental damage, the economic ripple effects are also significant.

• Upward Pressure on International Oil Prices: Geopolitical risks such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade are major drivers of rising international oil prices. As of May 3, 2026, international oil prices have already reached $126/barrel, nearly doubling compared to December last year.
• Rising Food Prices: Rising international oil prices lead to increased demand for biofuels and higher fertilizer production costs, pushing up global food prices, especially edible oil prices. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world food price index rose for the third consecutive month in April, and the vegetable oil price index reached its highest level since July 2022.
• Overall Inflation: High oil prices affect transportation costs and the production costs of various consumer goods, acting as a factor that exacerbates overall inflation.

Ultimately, the oil spill is not an isolated incident but a problem intertwined with complex international affairs and economic factors.

2026 Oil Market: ‘Prolonged High Oil Prices’ a Foregone Conclusion

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and major analytical institutions project that the global oil market surplus in 2026 will narrow even further than expected. Despite increased supply from non-OPEC producers, geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, and the influence of OPEC+ are expected to persist. In particular, if the Strait of Hormuz blockade is prolonged, international oil prices will remain ‘higher for longer,’ with some scenarios even mentioning the possibility of exceeding $200/barrel.

This trend of high oil prices is supported by several factors:

• Geopolitical Instability: Tensions in the Middle East are a key variable that can disrupt the crude oil supply chain at any time.
• Demand Recovery: Crude oil demand is expected to continue increasing with the recovery of the global economy.
• Dollar Volatility: Dollar volatility is cited as one of the biggest variables for oil prices in 2026, and a weaker dollar could fuel rising oil prices.

In conclusion, the dominant forecast for the 2026 oil market is that high oil prices will be prolonged due to a tightening supply-demand balance rather than an oversupply. This is not just a prediction but a phenomenon already becoming a reality.

The Iranian oil spill incident reveals a complex facet of international problems that cannot be dismissed as merely an environmental issue for one country. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are threatening marine ecosystems, exacerbating instability in the global energy market, and ultimately shaking the prices of goods in our daily lives. It is time to closely monitor international movements surrounding Iran and changes in the global energy market.

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It’s the news that a state-of-the-art US military unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, valued at over 350 billion won, crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. The crash was confirmed five days after it went missing, indicating a truly unusual situation. Let’s delve into what this incident really means and why it happened now.

The 350 billion won ‘Eye in the Sky’ MQ-4C Triton, what kind of drone is it?

The US military unmanned reconnaissance aircraft that crashed is the MQ-4C Triton. Doesn’t the name itself sound cool? This drone is so remarkable that each unit costs a whopping 238 million dollars, or about 350.7 billion won in Korean currency, making it an incredibly high-value asset. It truly deserves to be called the ‘Eye in the Sky.’

• High-altitude, long-endurance capability: It can fly at altitudes of over 50,000 feet (about 15 km) for more than 24 hours, monitoring vast maritime areas for extended periods.
• State-of-the-art surveillance equipment: It is equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar capable of detecting thousands of targets simultaneously, electro-optical/infrared cameras, and electronic intelligence gathering equipment.
• Key reconnaissance asset: Operated by the US Navy for maritime surveillance, it has been performing critical surveillance missions in the Middle East.

For such an incredible drone to suddenly disappear and crash, it must be a truly painful loss for the US military. It’s not just a matter of money; the significant blow to intelligence gathering capabilities in the Middle East is even more critical.

The Strait of Hormuz, why has it become such a hot potato?

The Strait of Hormuz, where this drone crash occurred, is essentially a ‘powder keg’ of international affairs. Do you know why it’s so important? Approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil and gas shipments pass through this strait. It is, quite literally, an energy artery.

You’re all aware that tensions in the Middle East have been escalating recently. In particular, with the deepening confrontation between the US and Iran, on April 13, the US military began a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. This measure, based on a proclamation by President Trump, is truly serious. While they stated they would not impede the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz that are not bound for Iranian ports, it signifies a significant increase in military pressure in the region.

• Key to energy transport: As a major conduit for global oil, if it’s blocked, international oil prices are bound to fluctuate wildly.
• Front line of US-Iran conflict: It’s where military and economic pressure between the two countries clashes most directly.
• Frequent military clashes: In the past, there have been frequent minor and major clashes between US and Iranian forces in this region.

In this situation, the crash of a state-of-the-art reconnaissance drone could literally be like adding fuel to the fire. It’s already an unstable situation.

The US military’s challenge: What happens after the drone crash?

The MQ-4C Triton drone crash has presented the US military with several significant challenges. The US Naval Safety Command stated in its report that the crash occurred on April 9, but did not disclose the location of the accident due to ‘operational security.’ The cause of the accident also remains unclear.

• Risk of information leakage: If hostile forces secure the drone’s wreckage intact, there’s a growing concern that the advanced equipment and electronic information onboard could be leaked. This would be a truly serious matter.
• Escalation of regional tensions: Tensions are already at an all-time high due to the naval blockade with Iran, and this incident could further fuel military confrontation between the two countries.
• Weakened operational capability: The loss of a key reconnaissance asset will inevitably directly impact the US military’s surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities in the Middle East.

The US military news outlet ‘The War Zone’ noted that there were no signs of the crash being due to hostile action, but emphasized that the recovery of the wreckage is a crucial variable. We are truly concerned about how the US military will resolve this issue and how relations with Iran will unfold.

The conflict between the US military and Iran surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and this drone crash in the midst of it, doesn’t seem like a simple mishap. It has become a critical issue that the whole world must watch with bated breath. We can only hope for a peaceful resolution without further unfortunate incidents.

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In reality, such operations are far more complex and dangerous than we can imagine. Beyond simple combat, everything from information warfare to psychological warfare is brought into play. Let’s delve into the hidden story of this rescue operation and the increasingly diverse roles of special forces.

In the Heart of Iran: The Full Story of the F-15 Pilot Rescue Operation

On April 3rd, a US F-15E fighter jet was shot down by Iranian Revolutionary Guard air defenses over southwestern Iran, an unprecedented incident. One of the two pilots was quickly rescued, but the whereabouts of the other remained unknown. The problem was that the missing pilot was a high-ranking officer, a colonel. Iranian authorities reportedly offered a bounty and launched a search to take this pilot hostage, so from the US perspective, it was truly an urgent situation.

The US military immediately launched a large-scale search and rescue operation. Hundreds of special forces personnel, including JSOC-affiliated units from the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM), and Air Force Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) assets were deployed. They undertook a perilous operation, flying C-130 transport planes and rescue helicopters at low altitudes over the Iranian mountainous terrain. During this, two rescue helicopters came under ground fire from Iranian forces, and some personnel were injured, creating a tense situation. President Trump even described the operation as “one of the most daring search and rescue operations in American history.” Ultimately, the missing pilot was safely rescued after 36 hours, and all personnel returned, which must have been a breathtaking time.

The Hidden Efforts of Elite Special Forces like ‘DEVGRU’

In this Iranian pilot rescue operation, the performance of elite special forces like the US Navy’s Naval Special Warfare Development Group, or ‘DEVGRU,’ truly stood out. In fact, some analyses suggest that the cost of training a single special forces operative like these is as much as 2 million dollars (approximately 3 billion Korean Won). This means they possess a level of training and ability far beyond that of regular soldiers.

• Performing extremely dangerous missions: They undertake high-risk missions that regular units cannot, such as hostage rescue, counter-terrorism operations, and intelligence activities.
• Operating advanced equipment and tactics: They are equipped with the latest weapon systems and develop unique tactics, enabling them to complete missions in any situation.
• Strategic value: As a small, elite force, they possess strategic value that can change the course of a war, such as striking key enemy facilities or eliminating important figures.

These units receive full budgetary support and grant field commanders extensive decision-making authority on whether to continue missions, allowing them to respond quickly in urgent situations. They’re not just ‘big-headed’ in a negative sense; they must have perfect tactical judgment and execution skills.

Changing Operational Environments and the Future of Special Forces

Given the recent instability in international affairs, the role of special forces is becoming even more crucial. In situations where maritime security is threatened, such as Iran’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, special forces may be deployed for missions like forced boarding of vessels. Thus, the operational scope for special forces is expanding not only on land but also at sea and even in cyberspace.

• Our military is also seeking changes in line with this trend. A good example is the recent counter-terrorism training conducted by the Republic of Korea Army Special Warfare Command’s Gwisung Unit with the Incheon Police SWAT team.
• They are enhancing their response capabilities through realistic training, such as close-quarters combat and hostage rescue procedures, assuming terror situations that could occur in urban areas.
• They are even accelerating equipment modernization by replacing the K1A rifle, which has been used for over 40 years, with the K13 submachine gun. We look forward to the future activities of our special forces.

In conclusion, special forces are evolving beyond merely tough soldiers into strategic assets with high levels of professionalism and flexibility. In the unpredictable flow of modern warfare, their role will only continue to grow.

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1. What is the Strait of Hormuz, the World’s Energy Artery?

To be honest, I only truly understood how important the Strait of Hormuz is this time. On a map, it just looks like a narrow waterway, but it’s actually the heart of the global energy market.
It’s said that 20% to as much as 30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil shipments and about 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this strait. It’s virtually the only passage for oil and gas produced by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries to reach the rest of the world.
* Location: Connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, between Iran and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula.
* Width: The narrowest point is only about 33 km.
* Importance: It’s a strategically vital choke point for the crude oil exports of Middle Eastern oil-producing nations.
So, if this route is blocked, international oil prices will skyrocket, and the global economy will inevitably falter. South Korea also heavily relies on Middle Eastern crude oil, right? So, this isn’t just someone else’s problem.

2. Why Was ‘Forcible Opening’ Discussed?

Then why was such a sensitive issue as ‘forcible opening’ even discussed? The trigger, in fact, was the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February this year.
As the war continued for over a month, Iran virtually blockaded the strait. This led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, fluctuating around $120 per barrel.
The Gulf Arab states, suffering immense damage from Iran’s blockade, submitted a draft resolution through Bahrain, the UNSC president. The gist was to allow member states to use ‘all necessary defensive means,’ either individually or through multinational naval cooperation, to counter any attempts to impede free navigation in the strait.
This would essentially provide international legal justification for physical clashes or the use of force to break the blockade, which is a terrifying thought, isn’t it?

3. Why Did the UN Security Council Postpone the Resolution Vote?

But why is the vote on such an important resolution repeatedly postponed? It was originally scheduled for April 3rd, then moved to the 4th, and now again to next week. I think it’s due to various complex international power dynamics.
The biggest reason is probably the opposition from the permanent member states.
* Opposition from China and Russia: These two countries strongly oppose Western-led military intervention. China, in particular, views the fundamental cause of the disruption in transit through the Strait of Hormuz as the illegal military actions of the US and Israel against Iran. They believe military means cannot solve the problem.
* France’s Realism: French President Macron also stated that forcible opening is ‘unrealistic.’ He expressed concerns that it would take an enormous amount of time and that ships passing through the strait could be exposed to threats from Iran.
* Iran’s Strong Request to Block: Iran reportedly asked Russia to block the adoption of this resolution, arguing that it would complicate the situation further. Their stance is to maintain control of the strait even after the war ends.
With these complex intertwining interests of powerful nations and Iran’s position, Bahrain is reportedly adjusting the intensity of the draft, for example, by deleting sensitive phrases like ‘enforcement.’
In conclusion, this postponement decision has averted the worst-case scenario of immediate armed conflict, but it doesn’t mean the problem has been solved. We will have to continue to watch whether the international community can find a truly wise solution. I sincerely hope there will be no further unfortunate events.

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Personally, every time this happens, I feel that the world of investment is truly difficult. It started to fall due to President Trump’s strong remarks, then stabilized again due to news from a strait in the Middle East. Today, I’d like to talk about what exactly happened that day and what we need to know.

## 1. Trump’s ‘Stone Age’ Remarks Freeze the Market

In fact, the US stock market was unusual from the start of the day. US President Donald Trump made very strong remarks about Iran. In a national address, he said, “We will hit Iran extremely hard for the next 2-3 weeks,” and even, “We will turn Iran back to the Stone Age.”

When such harsh words came out, the market had no choice but to react immediately. Investor sentiment rapidly contracted due to concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average started to decline.

Honestly, I think such strong remarks directly affect international oil prices. In fact, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil once surged by 13%. I realized once again how much impact a single unpredictable political statement can have on the global economy.

## 2. Strait of Hormuz Holds the Key to Reversal

But then, an unexpected reversal occurred in this frozen market. It was due to expectations regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that it was preparing a draft agreement with Oman to manage ship traffic.

As this news spread, market anxiety significantly decreased. International oil prices also gave back some of their gains, and while only the Dow Jones fell slightly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq turned upward. Who would have known that the situation in the Middle East would play such a crucial role?

As many of you probably know, the Strait of Hormuz is a very important place where about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil transport passes. Ensuring safe passage through here is news that brings great relief to the global economy.

## 3. The Dual Face of the Strait of Hormuz: Transit Fee Controversy

But here’s another story. While Iran is preparing an agreement for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, it is actually showing signs of imposing a ‘transit fee’. The Iranian parliament reportedly approved a plan to impose transit fees on ships passing through the strait.

If this becomes a reality, there is talk that a transit fee of about $1 per barrel could be collected. For very large oil tankers, this could amount to billions of Korean Won. Honestly, this could lead to controversy over violations of international law and could be a significant burden for countries like ours that import crude oil.

Looking at this situation, I realize once again that the Strait of Hormuz goes beyond simply meaning ‘safe passage’ and exerts enormous influence on international politics and economics. I’m really interested to see how this transit fee issue will unfold in the future.

## 4. Market Resilience Seen Even Amidst Volatility

In conclusion, on April 2nd, the US stock market closed mixed, with President Trump’s strong remarks and expectations for transit through the Strait of Hormuz clashing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13%, but the S&P 500 index rose by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose by 0.18%.

This situation shows that while the market reacts sensitively to geopolitical risks, it also has the resilience to recover quickly when diplomatic solutions or prospects for improvement are seen. As an investor, I think it’s really important to read these market trends well.

Of course, international situations are always unpredictable, but we should still try not to miss the big trends. I hope we all achieve successful results through wise investment!

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