Middle East Crisis Reignited: Re-blockade of Hormuz

On June 20 (local time), Iran declared the re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, citing violations of the ceasefire MOU by the United States and Israel. This came just two days after transit through the strait resumed following the US-Iran ceasefire MOU. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Military Headquarters, which commands the integrated Iranian forces, stated that the re-blockade was due to “the United States’ clear violation of the principle of good faith and non-fulfillment of promises, including the non-implementation of Article 1 of the memorandum.” In particular, they raised concerns about the continued airstrikes targeting the pro-Iranian armed group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The US Central Command, responsible for the Middle East, immediately stated, “US forces are stationed in the region and remain vigilant to ensure that the agreement with Iran is observed and fully implemented,” emphasizing its commitment to supporting freedom of navigation.

International Oil Prices: The Beginning of a Roller Coaster Market?

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy transit route, accounting for approximately 35% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments and 20% of all oil trade. Its importance is overwhelming, especially given that about 82% of crude oil imported into South Korea passes through this strait. Iran’s re-blockade declaration immediately impacted the , increasing upward price pressure. Earlier, international oil prices had plummeted to the low $80s per barrel on news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, but this re-blockade has once again heightened uncertainty. International oil prices are highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, and a sharp price increase will be unavoidable if concerns about supply disruptions materialize.

Dark Clouds Over the Global Economy and Shipping Industry

The threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade is not limited to rising oil prices. It is also directly impacting the global . If transit through the strait is restricted or safety issues arise, it can lead to increased insurance premiums, transportation delays, and other negative effects on the entire global supply chain, in addition to the resumption of ship operations. Even after the peace agreement between the US and Iran, the shipping industry remained cautious about operating in the Strait of Hormuz, as there were many issues to resolve, such as mine clearance and verification of navigation safety. Experts predict that it will take a considerable amount of time for the commercial shipping system to fully normalize even after the strait reopens.

Iran’s declaration of a re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has once again amplified uncertainty surrounding international oil prices. Changes in the Middle East situation are always unpredictable variables, but the stability of the Strait of Hormuz is directly linked to the global energy market and the world economy. Diplomatic efforts by the relevant countries are urgently needed, and we must closely monitor future international affairs and oil price trends.

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In fact, this incident appears to be an inevitable conflict arising as the UAE declares its intention, both domestically and internationally, to no longer remain a ‘peripheral nation’ in the Middle East. The UAE’s decision to move away from the traditional oil-centric order and pursue an independent diplomatic and security policy is bound to clash with the interests of surrounding major powers. The direct confrontation with Iran, in particular, fully reveals the UAE’s geopolitical position and the rapidly changing dynamics of the Middle East.

Turbulent Middle East: Iran Resumes Provocations

On May 4, the UAE detected four cruise missiles launched from Iran, successfully intercepting three of them over its territorial waters. The remaining missile fell into the sea. Simultaneously, an Iranian drone attack caused fires in the Fujairah oil industrial zone, injuring three Indian nationals. This marks the first direct attack since the truce agreement between the US and Iran on April 8, signaling the end of a brief period of peace in the Middle East. The UAE Ministry of Defense stated that the missiles targeted several locations within the UAE, and missile threat warnings were issued in major cities like Dubai and Sharjah.

The severity of these provocations is significant, as they directly targeted the Fujairah oil facilities near the Strait of Hormuz, which allows the UAE to bypass its energy export base. Iran’s renewed attack occurred shortly after the US launched ‘Operation Project Freedom’ to support the passage of civilian vessels, previously tied up in the Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating military tensions.

• May 4 Iranian Attack: 4 cruise missiles detected, 3 intercepted, 1 fell into the sea
• Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone Fire: Caused by Iranian drone attack, 3 Indian nationals injured
• Truce Agreement Broken: First direct attack since the April 8 US-Iran truce
• Missile Warning Issued: Emergency messages sent to major cities including Dubai and Sharjah

UAE’s OPEC Withdrawal: The Start of an Independent Path

The UAE officially announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on April 28, with effect from May 1. This separation, after nearly 60 years since joining in 1967, is a symbolic event that heralds a structural change in the Middle East order, beyond a mere shift in energy policy. The UAE explained that this decision was a policy choice regarding production quotas and maximizing profits, aimed at effectively meeting national interests and urgent market demands. However, the prevailing analysis suggests that the UAE’s strong desire to break away from the Saudi-centric Gulf order and secure its own strategic autonomy played a significant role.

Especially in a situation where the Middle East conflict led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting crude oil exports, the UAE, despite being a strong US ally, had to endure losses by being tied to the Saudi-centric oil market order. Ultimately, the UAE is moving to gain flexibility in production through its OPEC withdrawal and strengthen security and financial cooperation with the US. Indeed, the UAE is discussing currency swaps with the US, which serves as a safety net against the Iranian threat and aligns with the US strategy to strengthen the ‘petrodollar’.

• OPEC Withdrawal Officially Announced: April 28, 2026, effective May 1
• Background of Withdrawal: Dissatisfaction with the Saudi-centric OPEC order, pursuit of independent production policies
• Discussions on Currency Swap with US: Strengthening security against Iranian threats and ensuring financial stability

Beyond Oil: Future Power, AI, and Security Enhancement Strategy

The UAE is fully committed to reducing its reliance on oil and fostering future industries. Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, in particular, is considered a key driver for the UAE to lead the post-oil era. The UAE government has announced plans to convert 50% of government services to agent-based AI by 2026, actively emphasizing the establishment of AI research centers, funding innovation projects, and promoting industry-academia-government collaboration. This can be seen as a commitment to fundamentally transform national competitiveness, beyond mere technology adoption. Simultaneously, the UAE is also strengthening cooperation with the US in the security sector, aiming to build an independent defense system.

Having felt disappointment from both Israel and Iran in the Middle East conflict, the UAE learned the lesson that ‘one cannot determine their own destiny by relying on others.’ Consequently, the UAE is pursuing a strategy to position itself as an active player on the complex geopolitical stage of the Middle East, where three orders overlap: a US-centric military, air defense, and AI order; a China-centric energy, infrastructure, and development order; and a self-centric regional middle power order.

• Key Future Driver: Fostering Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, target of 50% AI conversion for government services
• Security Enhancement: Strengthening security cooperation with the US, building an independent defense system
• Strategic Lesson: Realizing the importance of ‘shaping one’s own destiny’ through Middle East conflicts
• Complex Middle East Order: Strategy utilizing three orders centered on the US, China, and regional middle powers

The recent series of events surrounding the UAE clearly demonstrate that the country is charting a different course from the Middle East of the past. From its firm response to Iran’s missile attack, to establishing an independent path through OPEC withdrawal, and efforts to invest in future technologies and strengthen security. The UAE will not cease its attempts to secure a new status with its own strategy amidst the turbulent Middle East.

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It’s the news that a state-of-the-art US military unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, valued at over 350 billion won, crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. The crash was confirmed five days after it went missing, indicating a truly unusual situation. Let’s delve into what this incident really means and why it happened now.

The 350 billion won ‘Eye in the Sky’ MQ-4C Triton, what kind of drone is it?

The US military unmanned reconnaissance aircraft that crashed is the MQ-4C Triton. Doesn’t the name itself sound cool? This drone is so remarkable that each unit costs a whopping 238 million dollars, or about 350.7 billion won in Korean currency, making it an incredibly high-value asset. It truly deserves to be called the ‘Eye in the Sky.’

• High-altitude, long-endurance capability: It can fly at altitudes of over 50,000 feet (about 15 km) for more than 24 hours, monitoring vast maritime areas for extended periods.
• State-of-the-art surveillance equipment: It is equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar capable of detecting thousands of targets simultaneously, electro-optical/infrared cameras, and electronic intelligence gathering equipment.
• Key reconnaissance asset: Operated by the US Navy for maritime surveillance, it has been performing critical surveillance missions in the Middle East.

For such an incredible drone to suddenly disappear and crash, it must be a truly painful loss for the US military. It’s not just a matter of money; the significant blow to intelligence gathering capabilities in the Middle East is even more critical.

The Strait of Hormuz, why has it become such a hot potato?

The Strait of Hormuz, where this drone crash occurred, is essentially a ‘powder keg’ of international affairs. Do you know why it’s so important? Approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil and gas shipments pass through this strait. It is, quite literally, an energy artery.

You’re all aware that tensions in the Middle East have been escalating recently. In particular, with the deepening confrontation between the US and Iran, on April 13, the US military began a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. This measure, based on a proclamation by President Trump, is truly serious. While they stated they would not impede the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz that are not bound for Iranian ports, it signifies a significant increase in military pressure in the region.

• Key to energy transport: As a major conduit for global oil, if it’s blocked, international oil prices are bound to fluctuate wildly.
• Front line of US-Iran conflict: It’s where military and economic pressure between the two countries clashes most directly.
• Frequent military clashes: In the past, there have been frequent minor and major clashes between US and Iranian forces in this region.

In this situation, the crash of a state-of-the-art reconnaissance drone could literally be like adding fuel to the fire. It’s already an unstable situation.

The US military’s challenge: What happens after the drone crash?

The MQ-4C Triton drone crash has presented the US military with several significant challenges. The US Naval Safety Command stated in its report that the crash occurred on April 9, but did not disclose the location of the accident due to ‘operational security.’ The cause of the accident also remains unclear.

• Risk of information leakage: If hostile forces secure the drone’s wreckage intact, there’s a growing concern that the advanced equipment and electronic information onboard could be leaked. This would be a truly serious matter.
• Escalation of regional tensions: Tensions are already at an all-time high due to the naval blockade with Iran, and this incident could further fuel military confrontation between the two countries.
• Weakened operational capability: The loss of a key reconnaissance asset will inevitably directly impact the US military’s surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities in the Middle East.

The US military news outlet ‘The War Zone’ noted that there were no signs of the crash being due to hostile action, but emphasized that the recovery of the wreckage is a crucial variable. We are truly concerned about how the US military will resolve this issue and how relations with Iran will unfold.

The conflict between the US military and Iran surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and this drone crash in the midst of it, doesn’t seem like a simple mishap. It has become a critical issue that the whole world must watch with bated breath. We can only hope for a peaceful resolution without further unfortunate incidents.

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1. What is the Strait of Hormuz, the World’s Energy Artery?

To be honest, I only truly understood how important the Strait of Hormuz is this time. On a map, it just looks like a narrow waterway, but it’s actually the heart of the global energy market.
It’s said that 20% to as much as 30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil shipments and about 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this strait. It’s virtually the only passage for oil and gas produced by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries to reach the rest of the world.
* Location: Connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, between Iran and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula.
* Width: The narrowest point is only about 33 km.
* Importance: It’s a strategically vital choke point for the crude oil exports of Middle Eastern oil-producing nations.
So, if this route is blocked, international oil prices will skyrocket, and the global economy will inevitably falter. South Korea also heavily relies on Middle Eastern crude oil, right? So, this isn’t just someone else’s problem.

2. Why Was ‘Forcible Opening’ Discussed?

Then why was such a sensitive issue as ‘forcible opening’ even discussed? The trigger, in fact, was the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February this year.
As the war continued for over a month, Iran virtually blockaded the strait. This led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, fluctuating around $120 per barrel.
The Gulf Arab states, suffering immense damage from Iran’s blockade, submitted a draft resolution through Bahrain, the UNSC president. The gist was to allow member states to use ‘all necessary defensive means,’ either individually or through multinational naval cooperation, to counter any attempts to impede free navigation in the strait.
This would essentially provide international legal justification for physical clashes or the use of force to break the blockade, which is a terrifying thought, isn’t it?

3. Why Did the UN Security Council Postpone the Resolution Vote?

But why is the vote on such an important resolution repeatedly postponed? It was originally scheduled for April 3rd, then moved to the 4th, and now again to next week. I think it’s due to various complex international power dynamics.
The biggest reason is probably the opposition from the permanent member states.
* Opposition from China and Russia: These two countries strongly oppose Western-led military intervention. China, in particular, views the fundamental cause of the disruption in transit through the Strait of Hormuz as the illegal military actions of the US and Israel against Iran. They believe military means cannot solve the problem.
* France’s Realism: French President Macron also stated that forcible opening is ‘unrealistic.’ He expressed concerns that it would take an enormous amount of time and that ships passing through the strait could be exposed to threats from Iran.
* Iran’s Strong Request to Block: Iran reportedly asked Russia to block the adoption of this resolution, arguing that it would complicate the situation further. Their stance is to maintain control of the strait even after the war ends.
With these complex intertwining interests of powerful nations and Iran’s position, Bahrain is reportedly adjusting the intensity of the draft, for example, by deleting sensitive phrases like ‘enforcement.’
In conclusion, this postponement decision has averted the worst-case scenario of immediate armed conflict, but it doesn’t mean the problem has been solved. We will have to continue to watch whether the international community can find a truly wise solution. I sincerely hope there will be no further unfortunate events.

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