This situation is not just Iran’s problem. It is serious because it further fuels instability in the global energy market and could ultimately lead to a domino effect threatening our food prices.

Strait of Hormuz Blockade, What’s Happening to Iran?

The massive oil spill near Iran’s Kharg Island is not unrelated to the intensified US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As the US military strengthens control over Iranian-flagged vessels and ships departing from Iran, Iran’s crude oil export routes are virtually blocked. For Iran, which finds it difficult to arbitrarily halt crude oil production, a severe problem of insufficient storage space has arisen.

This situation is cited as the direct cause of the oil spill.

• Exceeding Storage Limits: It is possible that crude oil spilled due to storage facilities exceeding their capacity.
• Rupture of Aging Pipeline: The possibility of a rupture in an aging subsea pipeline transporting crude oil from oil fields west of Kharg Island has also been raised.
• Possibility of Intentional Discharge: There is even speculation that Iran may have intentionally discharged crude oil into the sea due to a lack of storage space.

The exact cause of the spill is still unclear, but it is evident that all these possibilities are tragic consequences of the unstable situation in the Middle East.

More Than Just an Environmental Disaster: Ripple Effects

This Iranian oil spill could have a devastating impact on the Persian Gulf ecosystem. Warnings suggest that if the spilled crude oil spreads along currents to coastal areas in the shallow Persian Gulf, the damage to coastal ecosystems will be immense. Particularly sensitive ecosystems such as mangroves, coral reefs, seabirds, turtles, and spawning grounds could suffer severe damage.

Beyond environmental damage, the economic ripple effects are also significant.

• Upward Pressure on International Oil Prices: Geopolitical risks such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade are major drivers of rising international oil prices. As of May 3, 2026, international oil prices have already reached $126/barrel, nearly doubling compared to December last year.
• Rising Food Prices: Rising international oil prices lead to increased demand for biofuels and higher fertilizer production costs, pushing up global food prices, especially edible oil prices. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world food price index rose for the third consecutive month in April, and the vegetable oil price index reached its highest level since July 2022.
• Overall Inflation: High oil prices affect transportation costs and the production costs of various consumer goods, acting as a factor that exacerbates overall inflation.

Ultimately, the oil spill is not an isolated incident but a problem intertwined with complex international affairs and economic factors.

2026 Oil Market: ‘Prolonged High Oil Prices’ a Foregone Conclusion

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and major analytical institutions project that the global oil market surplus in 2026 will narrow even further than expected. Despite increased supply from non-OPEC producers, geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, and the influence of OPEC+ are expected to persist. In particular, if the Strait of Hormuz blockade is prolonged, international oil prices will remain ‘higher for longer,’ with some scenarios even mentioning the possibility of exceeding $200/barrel.

This trend of high oil prices is supported by several factors:

• Geopolitical Instability: Tensions in the Middle East are a key variable that can disrupt the crude oil supply chain at any time.
• Demand Recovery: Crude oil demand is expected to continue increasing with the recovery of the global economy.
• Dollar Volatility: Dollar volatility is cited as one of the biggest variables for oil prices in 2026, and a weaker dollar could fuel rising oil prices.

In conclusion, the dominant forecast for the 2026 oil market is that high oil prices will be prolonged due to a tightening supply-demand balance rather than an oversupply. This is not just a prediction but a phenomenon already becoming a reality.

The Iranian oil spill incident reveals a complex facet of international problems that cannot be dismissed as merely an environmental issue for one country. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are threatening marine ecosystems, exacerbating instability in the global energy market, and ultimately shaking the prices of goods in our daily lives. It is time to closely monitor international movements surrounding Iran and changes in the global energy market.

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1. What is the Strait of Hormuz, the World’s Energy Artery?

To be honest, I only truly understood how important the Strait of Hormuz is this time. On a map, it just looks like a narrow waterway, but it’s actually the heart of the global energy market.
It’s said that 20% to as much as 30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil shipments and about 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this strait. It’s virtually the only passage for oil and gas produced by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries to reach the rest of the world.
* Location: Connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, between Iran and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula.
* Width: The narrowest point is only about 33 km.
* Importance: It’s a strategically vital choke point for the crude oil exports of Middle Eastern oil-producing nations.
So, if this route is blocked, international oil prices will skyrocket, and the global economy will inevitably falter. South Korea also heavily relies on Middle Eastern crude oil, right? So, this isn’t just someone else’s problem.

2. Why Was ‘Forcible Opening’ Discussed?

Then why was such a sensitive issue as ‘forcible opening’ even discussed? The trigger, in fact, was the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February this year.
As the war continued for over a month, Iran virtually blockaded the strait. This led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, fluctuating around $120 per barrel.
The Gulf Arab states, suffering immense damage from Iran’s blockade, submitted a draft resolution through Bahrain, the UNSC president. The gist was to allow member states to use ‘all necessary defensive means,’ either individually or through multinational naval cooperation, to counter any attempts to impede free navigation in the strait.
This would essentially provide international legal justification for physical clashes or the use of force to break the blockade, which is a terrifying thought, isn’t it?

3. Why Did the UN Security Council Postpone the Resolution Vote?

But why is the vote on such an important resolution repeatedly postponed? It was originally scheduled for April 3rd, then moved to the 4th, and now again to next week. I think it’s due to various complex international power dynamics.
The biggest reason is probably the opposition from the permanent member states.
* Opposition from China and Russia: These two countries strongly oppose Western-led military intervention. China, in particular, views the fundamental cause of the disruption in transit through the Strait of Hormuz as the illegal military actions of the US and Israel against Iran. They believe military means cannot solve the problem.
* France’s Realism: French President Macron also stated that forcible opening is ‘unrealistic.’ He expressed concerns that it would take an enormous amount of time and that ships passing through the strait could be exposed to threats from Iran.
* Iran’s Strong Request to Block: Iran reportedly asked Russia to block the adoption of this resolution, arguing that it would complicate the situation further. Their stance is to maintain control of the strait even after the war ends.
With these complex intertwining interests of powerful nations and Iran’s position, Bahrain is reportedly adjusting the intensity of the draft, for example, by deleting sensitive phrases like ‘enforcement.’
In conclusion, this postponement decision has averted the worst-case scenario of immediate armed conflict, but it doesn’t mean the problem has been solved. We will have to continue to watch whether the international community can find a truly wise solution. I sincerely hope there will be no further unfortunate events.

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Personally, every time this happens, I feel that the world of investment is truly difficult. It started to fall due to President Trump’s strong remarks, then stabilized again due to news from a strait in the Middle East. Today, I’d like to talk about what exactly happened that day and what we need to know.

## 1. Trump’s ‘Stone Age’ Remarks Freeze the Market

In fact, the US stock market was unusual from the start of the day. US President Donald Trump made very strong remarks about Iran. In a national address, he said, “We will hit Iran extremely hard for the next 2-3 weeks,” and even, “We will turn Iran back to the Stone Age.”

When such harsh words came out, the market had no choice but to react immediately. Investor sentiment rapidly contracted due to concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average started to decline.

Honestly, I think such strong remarks directly affect international oil prices. In fact, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil once surged by 13%. I realized once again how much impact a single unpredictable political statement can have on the global economy.

## 2. Strait of Hormuz Holds the Key to Reversal

But then, an unexpected reversal occurred in this frozen market. It was due to expectations regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that it was preparing a draft agreement with Oman to manage ship traffic.

As this news spread, market anxiety significantly decreased. International oil prices also gave back some of their gains, and while only the Dow Jones fell slightly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq turned upward. Who would have known that the situation in the Middle East would play such a crucial role?

As many of you probably know, the Strait of Hormuz is a very important place where about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil transport passes. Ensuring safe passage through here is news that brings great relief to the global economy.

## 3. The Dual Face of the Strait of Hormuz: Transit Fee Controversy

But here’s another story. While Iran is preparing an agreement for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, it is actually showing signs of imposing a ‘transit fee’. The Iranian parliament reportedly approved a plan to impose transit fees on ships passing through the strait.

If this becomes a reality, there is talk that a transit fee of about $1 per barrel could be collected. For very large oil tankers, this could amount to billions of Korean Won. Honestly, this could lead to controversy over violations of international law and could be a significant burden for countries like ours that import crude oil.

Looking at this situation, I realize once again that the Strait of Hormuz goes beyond simply meaning ‘safe passage’ and exerts enormous influence on international politics and economics. I’m really interested to see how this transit fee issue will unfold in the future.

## 4. Market Resilience Seen Even Amidst Volatility

In conclusion, on April 2nd, the US stock market closed mixed, with President Trump’s strong remarks and expectations for transit through the Strait of Hormuz clashing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13%, but the S&P 500 index rose by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose by 0.18%.

This situation shows that while the market reacts sensitively to geopolitical risks, it also has the resilience to recover quickly when diplomatic solutions or prospects for improvement are seen. As an investor, I think it’s really important to read these market trends well.

Of course, international situations are always unpredictable, but we should still try not to miss the big trends. I hope we all achieve successful results through wise investment!

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