What will the weather in 2026 look like? We’ll take a sober look at the potential for upcoming extreme weather events, including record-breaking , powerful typhoons, and unexpected cold snaps, through the analysis of meteorological experts worldwide.

2026: Predicted Record-Breaking High Temperatures

2026 is highly likely to be recorded as one of the hottest years in history due to the influence of El Niño. According to the latest meteorological prediction models, the global average temperature in 2026 is expected to be approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average. This figure places 2026 among the four warmest years since 1850, and some analyses suggest that a continuous exceedance of 1.4 degrees Celsius is no longer merely symbolic.

• Frequent Heatwaves: Heatwaves are likely to occur more frequently and intensify in 2026.
• Rising Temperatures: Global average temperatures have been steadily increasing for over a century, and this trend will continue in 2026.
• Amplified Extreme Phenomena: Rising temperatures contribute to the amplification of extreme weather events such as longer and more dangerous heatwaves, heavy rainfall causing sudden floods, and persistent droughts.

In particular, as typhoons/tropical cyclones active in the East Sea in 2025 reached a record high of 21, the most since 1961, preparation for such extreme phenomena is also necessary in 2026.

Changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Its Impact

A significant variable for 2026 weather is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Currently in a weak La Niña state, ENSO is highly likely to transition to a neutral state in the first half of 2026 and then gradually shift to an El Niño phase in the second half.

• ENSO Phase Transition: From May to July 2026, ENSO will remain in a neutral state, with the probability of transitioning to an El Niño state increasing in the latter half of the year.
• Risk of Powerful Typhoons: The unstable atmospheric-oceanic conditions due to the ENSO phase transition pose a risk of very powerful typhoons in 2026.
• Impact on the Korean Peninsula: Some analyses suggest that a super El Niño could lead to more frequent heavy rainfall or heatwaves around the Korean Peninsula.

These continuous ENSO phase transitions are identified as a major cause of extreme weather and climate phenomena worldwide.

Weather Anomaly Outlook for the Korean Peninsula and Major Regions

2026 is expected to see frequent unpredictable weather anomalies worldwide. Localized heavy rainfall, flash floods, and even powerful cold snaps and heavy snowfall necessitate preparation tailored to each region’s characteristics.

• US Winter Cold Snaps and Heavy Snowfall: According to the Farmer’s Almanac’s long-range winter forecast for 2025-2026, severe cold snaps and heavy snowfall are expected across the United States. Particularly pronounced cold snaps are predicted for mid-January and mid-February.
• Korean Peninsula Winter Outlook: The Korean Peninsula also faces the possibility of cold snaps and heavy snowfall in the 2025-2026 winter.
• Localized Heavy Rainfall and Floods: In certain regions of the United States, daily showers and thunderstorms during the Memorial Day holiday period in late May have already increased the risk of flash floods. Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness and speed, making them difficult to predict.

The combined effects of climate change and ENSO’s instability are making global weather more extreme and unpredictable. Continuous attention to weather forecasts and thorough preparation considering each region’s characteristics are more crucial than ever.

게시물 2026 Weather Forecast: Super El Niño to Bring Record Heatwaves and Powerful Typhoons이 솜삽 블로그에 처음 등장했습니다.

Why are ‘extreme rainfall’ events becoming more frequent after early heatwaves?

There is clear climate change behind the recent increase in heavy rainfall. In particular, with the possibility of a strong El Niño phenomenon occurring in mid-2026, concerns about heavy rainfall are growing, especially in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula. As global warming increases the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, climate-crisis-type torrential rains, or extreme rainfall, which dump ‘water bombs’ on specific areas in a short period, are becoming commonplace. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, a is issued when more than 90mm of rain is expected within 3 hours or more than 180mm within 12 hours. It is a fact that extreme rainfall of over 100mm per hour, which used to occur once every few decades, is now happening almost every year.

Types of Fatal Damage Caused by Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall pours down an enormous amount of rain in a short time, causing fatal damage in various forms. The main types of damage are as follows:

• Landslides and collapse of steep slopes: Short, intense heavy rainfall weakens the ground, significantly increasing the risk of landslides. In particular, as torrential rains exceeding 50mm per hour become more frequent, the number of landslides is rapidly increasing, and the Korea Forest Service emphasizes that resident evacuation is most important in reducing casualties.
• Urban flooding and underground space flooding: Localized torrential rains that existing drainage facilities cannot handle often lead to flooding of roads, houses, and commercial areas. Special attention is required for underground spaces such as underpasses and semi-basement houses, as they can quickly fill with water, leading to casualties.
• Damage to agricultural land and infrastructure: Agricultural land is submerged or washed away, and infrastructure such as roads and bridges are damaged, causing secondary damage such as traffic paralysis.

Heavy Rainfall Preparedness for Everyone’s Safety

Preparing for unpredictable heavy rainfall is no longer an option but a golden rule. The government and local authorities are operating a summer natural disaster countermeasure period, focusing on preemptive prevention and response. Gyeonggi Province has activated a disaster response system using advanced technologies such as AI and has granted evacuation orders to eup/myeon/dong heads to strengthen on-site response capabilities. It is also important for individuals and households to check and be familiar with the following in advance:

• : Check weather information frequently through TV, radio, internet, smartphones, etc., and set up emergency disaster text message reception.
• Pre-inspect vulnerable areas: Be prepared to move to a safe place from low-lying or habitually flooded areas, landslide risk areas, and underground spaces.
• Prepare emergency supplies: Prepare emergency supplies such as emergency food, drinking water, flashlights, and first-aid kits in advance.
• Caution when driving: When it rains, visibility is reduced and roads become slippery, so maintain a safe distance and reduce speed when driving.

Heavy rainfall is no longer a distant story. It is a realistic threat that can occur around us at any time. If we all remain vigilant and thoroughly prepare in line with the efforts of the government and local authorities, we can protect precious lives and property. Safety cannot be overemphasized.

게시물 3 Reasons Why You Can’t Be Complacent About Heavy Rainfall Even in May이 솜삽 블로그에 처음 등장했습니다.