In fact, this incident appears to be an inevitable conflict arising as the UAE declares its intention, both domestically and internationally, to no longer remain a ‘peripheral nation’ in the Middle East. The UAE’s decision to move away from the traditional oil-centric order and pursue an independent diplomatic and security policy is bound to clash with the interests of surrounding major powers. The direct confrontation with Iran, in particular, fully reveals the UAE’s geopolitical position and the rapidly changing dynamics of the Middle East.

Turbulent Middle East: Iran Resumes Provocations

On May 4, the UAE detected four cruise missiles launched from Iran, successfully intercepting three of them over its territorial waters. The remaining missile fell into the sea. Simultaneously, an Iranian drone attack caused fires in the Fujairah oil industrial zone, injuring three Indian nationals. This marks the first direct attack since the truce agreement between the US and Iran on April 8, signaling the end of a brief period of peace in the Middle East. The UAE Ministry of Defense stated that the missiles targeted several locations within the UAE, and missile threat warnings were issued in major cities like Dubai and Sharjah.

The severity of these provocations is significant, as they directly targeted the Fujairah oil facilities near the Strait of Hormuz, which allows the UAE to bypass its energy export base. Iran’s renewed attack occurred shortly after the US launched ‘Operation Project Freedom’ to support the passage of civilian vessels, previously tied up in the Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating military tensions.

• May 4 Iranian Attack: 4 cruise missiles detected, 3 intercepted, 1 fell into the sea
• Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone Fire: Caused by Iranian drone attack, 3 Indian nationals injured
• Truce Agreement Broken: First direct attack since the April 8 US-Iran truce
• Missile Warning Issued: Emergency messages sent to major cities including Dubai and Sharjah

UAE’s OPEC Withdrawal: The Start of an Independent Path

The UAE officially announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on April 28, with effect from May 1. This separation, after nearly 60 years since joining in 1967, is a symbolic event that heralds a structural change in the Middle East order, beyond a mere shift in energy policy. The UAE explained that this decision was a policy choice regarding production quotas and maximizing profits, aimed at effectively meeting national interests and urgent market demands. However, the prevailing analysis suggests that the UAE’s strong desire to break away from the Saudi-centric Gulf order and secure its own strategic autonomy played a significant role.

Especially in a situation where the Middle East conflict led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting crude oil exports, the UAE, despite being a strong US ally, had to endure losses by being tied to the Saudi-centric oil market order. Ultimately, the UAE is moving to gain flexibility in production through its OPEC withdrawal and strengthen security and financial cooperation with the US. Indeed, the UAE is discussing currency swaps with the US, which serves as a safety net against the Iranian threat and aligns with the US strategy to strengthen the ‘petrodollar’.

• OPEC Withdrawal Officially Announced: April 28, 2026, effective May 1
• Background of Withdrawal: Dissatisfaction with the Saudi-centric OPEC order, pursuit of independent production policies
• Discussions on Currency Swap with US: Strengthening security against Iranian threats and ensuring financial stability

Beyond Oil: Future Power, AI, and Security Enhancement Strategy

The UAE is fully committed to reducing its reliance on oil and fostering future industries. Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, in particular, is considered a key driver for the UAE to lead the post-oil era. The UAE government has announced plans to convert 50% of government services to agent-based AI by 2026, actively emphasizing the establishment of AI research centers, funding innovation projects, and promoting industry-academia-government collaboration. This can be seen as a commitment to fundamentally transform national competitiveness, beyond mere technology adoption. Simultaneously, the UAE is also strengthening cooperation with the US in the security sector, aiming to build an independent defense system.

Having felt disappointment from both Israel and Iran in the Middle East conflict, the UAE learned the lesson that ‘one cannot determine their own destiny by relying on others.’ Consequently, the UAE is pursuing a strategy to position itself as an active player on the complex geopolitical stage of the Middle East, where three orders overlap: a US-centric military, air defense, and AI order; a China-centric energy, infrastructure, and development order; and a self-centric regional middle power order.

• Key Future Driver: Fostering Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, target of 50% AI conversion for government services
• Security Enhancement: Strengthening security cooperation with the US, building an independent defense system
• Strategic Lesson: Realizing the importance of ‘shaping one’s own destiny’ through Middle East conflicts
• Complex Middle East Order: Strategy utilizing three orders centered on the US, China, and regional middle powers

The recent series of events surrounding the UAE clearly demonstrate that the country is charting a different course from the Middle East of the past. From its firm response to Iran’s missile attack, to establishing an independent path through OPEC withdrawal, and efforts to invest in future technologies and strengthen security. The UAE will not cease its attempts to secure a new status with its own strategy amidst the turbulent Middle East.

게시물 UAE Missile Attack: 3 Key Backgrounds Shaking the Middle East Truce이 솜삽 블로그에 처음 등장했습니다.

Honestly, when most people hear ‘Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,’ they probably just think it’s one of Iran’s military branches. But actually, they’re quite different from what we typically imagine as a conventional army. To truly understand Iranian power, you need to properly understand this organization. With the current situation in Iran being utterly chaotic, the role of the Revolutionary Guard is becoming increasingly important. You’d be surprised to learn what kind of organization they really are!

Why was the Revolutionary Guard created, and what does it do?

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was formed immediately after the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. At the time, Supreme Leader Khomeini distrusted the regular army, which had been loyal to the former Pahlavi dynasty, and decided that a loyal guard was needed to protect the revolutionary forces. So, in short, their main mission is to protect Iran’s Islamic system. While the regular army handles border defense, the Revolutionary Guard focuses on safeguarding the Islamic system from external interference, military coups, and ‘deviant acts.’ The fact that it’s an official institution enshrined in the Iranian constitution gives you an idea of its status, doesn’t it?

Military power is just the beginning; they control the economy and society too.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is not just a military organization that fires guns. It has its own ground forces, navy, air force, and even intelligence warfare units. Its personnel number 125,000, and it is known to possess much more modern equipment and better-qualified personnel than the regular army. What’s particularly noteworthy is that the Revolutionary Guard holds command and control over Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles.
But that’s not all. This organization wields immense influence across Iran’s politics, economy, and foreign policy. They even handle the suppression of domestic protests, resorting to violent crackdowns using snipers and machine guns during anti-government demonstrations in 2019 and 2022. Isn’t that a completely different scale?

Specialists in Overseas Operations: the ‘Quds Force‘ and Internal Control: the ‘Basij‘

Within the Revolutionary Guard, there are two more core organizations: the Quds Force, a special unit responsible for overseas operations, and the Basij militia, which handles domestic protest suppression and social control.

• Quds Force: This is an elite special force that reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader. It supports pro-Iranian armed groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and is actively involved in overseas conflict zones such as the Syrian civil war. The fact that the commander of the Quds Force’s Unit 840 was eliminated on April 6, 2026, indicates how important a target they are.
• Basij Militia: This is a volunteer militia under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, primarily responsible for maintaining domestic security and social control. They recruit young people by offering benefits such as military exemption and university admission, and they have branches in almost every city and village in Iran, implementing the state’s social control. In March 2026, the death of the Basij militia’s overall commander was also confirmed.

2026: The International Community’s View of the Revolutionary Guard

The international community does not view the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps favorably. The United States designated the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization in 2019, and the European Union (EU) followed suit on January 28, 2026. Many other countries, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Israel, have done the same. Even in 2026, the head of intelligence for the Revolutionary Guard was killed in US and Israeli airstrikes, placing them at the center of international conflict.
As such, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is more than just a military organization in Iran; it is the heart of the Iranian system and a key player that profoundly influences international affairs. The Middle East will fluctuate depending on their movements, so we must continue to monitor them closely.

게시물 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: The Real ‘Heart’ of Iranian Power Nobody Knew About – 3 Things이 솜삽 블로그에 처음 등장했습니다.